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Move Off Intraday Highs Ahead Of US Payrolls

EGBS

Core/semi-core EGBs have moved away from intraday highs to sit lower on the day. Markets appear to have unwound some of Thursday’s jump in the geopolitical risk premium, ahead of today’s US employment report.

  • While not market movers, this morning’s Eurozone industrial production data aligned with recent themes in regional surveys. German factory orders and French IP were softer than expected but Spanish IP was stronger.
  • Eurozone retail sales remained negative on an annual basis for the 17th consecutive month.
  • Bunds are -16 ticks at 132.58. A bearish threat remains present, and resumption of weakness (e.g. in response to a stronger than expected NFP figure) would refocus attention on key support and the bear trigger at 131.23, the Feb 29 low.
  • The German and French cash curves have twist steepened today, with short end yields remaining lower.
  • Periphery EGB spreads are wider to Bunds, a function of yesterday’s sell-off in equities following an increase in tensions between Israel and Iran. The 10-year BTP/Bund spread is 3.2bps wider at 141.7bps.
  • The US NFP release at 1330GMT/1430CET remains the focus across global markets.
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