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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
NBP
Governor Adam Glapinski says that "we are not celebrating today, because the return to the inflation target is temporary." He notes that inflation will "certainly" increase in the coming quarters, but the magnitude of this rebound is highly uncertain.
- The Governor says that the 5% VAT rate on food has been restored, which will boost CPI. He notes that the "price war" between major retail chains mitigates some of the immediate impact on consumer prices, but the exact impact of the VAT hike will only be seen in a few months' time.
- Inflation will be between +3.9% Y/Y and +7.5% Y/Y in 4Q2024, depending on whether the government keeps energy price caps or lifts them fully (the most likely inflation path will be between these two scenarios - see chart below).
- The Governor says that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is cognisant of these risks and hence did not discuss cutting interest rates "at all" this week.
Fig. 1: Poland Inflation Paths per NBP calculations. The red line shows the inflation path if energy price caps are fully lifted, the green line shows the inflation path if they remain in effect - the most likely path is somewhere between these two lines.
Source: NBP
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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