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MNI US Macro Weekly: Politics To The Fore
MPC don't think we are approaching equilibrium balance sheet size; QT to continue as planned
Ramsden asked on lack of liquidity in repo operations and what that means for QT
- Bailey says QT will bring level of reserves down to equilibrium level. Cant tell you what equilibrium level of reserves is, it is very endogenous. We will reach that level and will need to take decisions at the point. Deliberative put Short-Term Repo facility back in place before QT started - it's there to be used. Can't therefore necessarily conclude increases have seen are meaningful.
- Ramsden says put in place STR 2 years ago to say "We're open for business" to borrow 1-week money. The point recently, is we are comfortable we are not at the new equilibrium, did see increased usage last week. Thinks that usage is as intended, and as you would expect. Repo market is functioning well. Known supply/demand factors. Gilt redemption, moves in FX swaps and some month-end effects. Repo rates have fallen back from peaks which makes you think STR is doing its job. Not seeing some ratcheting up of these rates suggesting we are close to equilibrium. Was completely comfortable when voting to reduce Bank Rate to keep QT going in the background. Don't see a contradiction. Always said QT is in the background and getting balance sheet back to normal level. It is not the active monpol tool.
- Broadbent adds: Continue to trundle along with QT irrespective of ups and downs in Bank Rate. As long as you believe (which I tend to do) that effects are transmitted via prices - will take into account any effects that QE or QT are having. See no contradictions with QT continuring if Bank Rate falls.
- The results of this op out 4 minutes ago as the question was asked, up from GBP12.21bln last week to GBP13.58bln this week. As Ramsden said above, we would downplay this as a significant long-term change.
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