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MTU Aero A Relative Winner From Boeing Events

CREDIT RESEARCH

MTU Aero (MTX GY) has the best performing cash bond in the Euro index this morning (BK227798 Corp)(Baa3[S]/NR/BBB[S]) trading as well as 14bp tighter, against index barely moved.


  • MTU took a real hit from the Pratt & Whitney engine recall in 3Q23 (EUR1bn hit to EBIT in FY23) which took nearly a quarter off the market cap... since that point, it's recovered around half of that loss as mgmt gave reasonably strong revenue guidance out to FY25 (underlying growth approaching 10% p.a.).
  • Further to our earlier Airbus AIR FP Equity comment noting its strength at the expense of Boeing's issues around the 737 MAX9 grounding, we note most modern 737s are powered by CFM engines (JV between GE Aero and Safran) meaning MTU is a less affected corporate. If anything any switch to Airbus narrow-body aircraft (the A320 family) may be a net positive to MTU.
  • MTU equity is little changed today whereas its 3% 2025 bond is a top performer in the BBG EuroIG index. This bond is trading inline with similar bonds from Rolls-Royce and Leonardo having underperformed them both since the Sep-23 profit warning.

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