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Market News Topics
September 01, 2017 13:33 GMT
MUFG strategist John Herrmann on......>
US DATA REACT
US DATA REACT: MUFG strategist John Herrmann on soft Aug +156K jobs: "as we
previewed, August typically is undercounted in the first estimate. Since the
year 1999, the BLS typically UNDER-counts Aug. payrolls by an average of
-52.277K mom."
- He adds today's jobs has "symptoms" of another "under-count" as "first,
Private payrolls gained +165K mom, very, very close to our models forecast of
+168.1K mom (and very close to consensus +170K mom)." Plus 2nd, "seasonal
adjustment factor came in very close to forecast, although the SA factors for
June-July were nudged higher." He added "third, the Aug Establishmt
Collectn-Response Rate was extremely weak, which biases lower the gain in
nonfarm payrolls. Such a downward bias to the initial payroll estimate increases
the likelihood that this payroll number is revised higher. Fourth, the weakness
in this Aug payroll report was, once again, in the public school education
sector," a sector "most at risk to be UNDER-reported in Aug and especially in an
early Sat. 12th reference wk. He urged to "NOT chase the rally" but "broad" jobs
report "tone does fit with our FLAT 2s-10s Yld Curve call."
To read the full story
Close
Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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