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Muted Activity Elsewhere Fails to Prevent New High in USD/JPY

FOREX
  • Markets are muted early Monday, with most G10 currencies respecting their recent ranges and holding well within sight of the Sunday opening levels.
  • SEK is the minor standout, with EUR/SEK higher and printing at 11.8882, the highest level since July 10th. Equity volatility remains a key driver, however weakness across Chinese equity markets failed to prevent another cycle high print in USD/JPY, which showed above Y145.07 for the first time since November and further into the territory at which the Japanese authorities last intervened in currency markets.
  • GBP is very modestly outperforming, largely driven by GBP/USD recovering off the overnight low of 1.2667 to re-take 1.27 ahead of NY hours. Domestic newsflow remains light, with markets focusing on UK jobs and inflation data later in the week.
  • CFTC CoT data shows markets trimmed the USD Index net long further last week, putting the net position at the closest to flat since mid-2021, while markets continue to be the most net long MXN, GBP and EUR, with JPY positioning the most notable net short.
  • Datapoints and speakers are few and far between Monday, keeping focus on the datapoints later in the week including the Norges Bank and RBNZ rate decisions, as well as Canadian and Japanese CPI releases.
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