Muted Open After A Subdued NY Session For Tsys

In local morning trade, NZGBs are little changed after subdued NY trading for US tsys. In a data-light session, rates drifted near the middle of the session range following the NY Fed 1-Year Inflation Expectations release, which printed 3.63% versus 3.55% prior. US tsys finished flat to 4bp cheaper, with the curve steeper.

• Swap rates are unchanged.
• RBNZ dated OIS pricing is little changed, with terminal OCR expectations steady at 5.62%.
• NZ’s main opposition National Party is on course to win the October election, according to the latest opinion poll. Support for National rose 4.3 percentage points to 40.9% in the latest Newshub-Reid Research poll published late Monday in Wellington, its best result in more than three years. Support for the ruling Labour Party fell 5.5 points to 26.8%, its lowest since 2017 when it was last in opposition. (See link)
• Today the local calendar sees Retail Card Spending and Net Migration data, along with the Pre-Election Economic and Fiscal Update. It is worth noting that economic conditions have taken a downturn since the Treasury's Budget publication in May. Consequently, the Treasury is expected to unveil around a NZ$15bn cumulative deficit increase out to 2026/27, with a substantial surge in the government's projected borrowing program.