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Muted Start, August CPI Headlines Week

US TSYS

TYZ3 deals at 109-28, -0-01+, in line with levels seen late in Friday’s NY session in a muted start to Monday’s dealing.

  • Cash tsys finished 4bps cheaper to flat across the major benchmarks, the curve bear flattened.
  • Tsys were pressured on Friday, albeit in narrow ranges, the move lower came after a stronger than fore Wholesale Trade Sales figure. The Atlanta Fed GDP Now Tracker for Q3 was unrevised at 5.6%, rising from 2.1% in Q2.
  • The Fed is now in its policy blackout period ahead of the FOMC meeting next week.
  • FOMC dated OIS remain stable pricing a terminal rate of 5.45% in November with ~50bps of cuts by July 2024.
  • August CPI on Wednesday headlines the data docket this week, a rise of 0.6% M/M in the headline figure and 0.2% M/M in the core figure is expected.
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