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MXN: Another Narrow Range for USDMXN, Edges to Session Lows

MXN
  • USDMXN has edged to the lowest level of the session below 18.40 as the US session commences, although the pair remains well off the week’s lows 18.2929. Greenback strength and the associated pressure on EMFX on Thursday is having little impact as markets continue to ponder the post-election domestic risks and await cabinet announcements later today.
  • Following Sheinbaum’s comments yesterday, BBVA have noted that even though the announced deficit target is higher than the government’s initial forecasts, it is still a controlled deviation and lower than some analysts’ forecasts. As such, the news should not drive more significant moves in the peso and BBVA await more details in the 2025 budget negotiations. Indeed, they note the MXN has seen improved two-way flow over the past week and aims to settle in a new range (18.00-19.20 for now), with some upside risks given the pipeline (budget, reforms, US elections) and global risks.
  • The current bull cycle in USDMXN remains in play and the pullback from last week’s high is considered corrective. A resumption of gains would open the 19.00 handle and if this level gives way, it will expose 19.2083, the 50.0% retracement point of the Nov 26 ‘21 - Apr 9 ‘24 bear cycle. Support to watch moves up to 17.9247, the 20-day EMA.
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