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MXN Pares Losses As Risk Sentiment Stabilises

MEXICO
  • The Mexican peso has extended its recovery as risk stabilises following the US ISM services data, with a more stable equities backdrop and higher core yields. USDMXN is currently 1.2% higher on the day, around 19.42, having traded as high as 20.2181 earlier today.
  • From a technical perspective, a bullish theme in USDMXN remains intact and last week’s gains, plus today’s follow through, signal potential for a continuation higher near-term.
  • Price has traded through the 20.00 handle, a clear break of which would pave the way for an extension towards 20.7642, the 76.4% retracement of the bear leg between Nov ‘21 and Apr this year.
  • Commerzbank remains cautious on MXN. Though they believe the peso could benefit somewhat in the near-term and recoup some of the recent losses, in the medium term (until the beginning of next year), they see worse times ahead for the peso, noting continued political risks and prospect of Banxico rate cuts including a 25bp move this week.
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