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NAB: AUD/USD Outperforms Move Higher In Fair Value

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NAB note that “November was another risk positive month, but unlike October, when AUD/USD failed to exhibit its traditional pro-risk attributes, this time the currency smartly outperformed the gains indicated by our fair value model (spot up close to 4c vs. 2c in the model). The improvement in risk appetite was the main contributor for the gains in the model’s estimate, adding just over 1c during the month. Commodities boosted to the model estimate with gains in gold and metal prices more than offsetting weakness in oil prices. The model’s rates factor also lifted the model estimate with both level and curvature the notable contributors.” Their short-term fair value model for the pair now sits at $0.7080

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NAB note that “November was another risk positive month, but unlike October, when AUD/USD failed to exhibit its traditional pro-risk attributes, this time the currency smartly outperformed the gains indicated by our fair value model (spot up close to 4c vs. 2c in the model). The improvement in risk appetite was the main contributor for the gains in the model’s estimate, adding just over 1c during the month. Commodities boosted to the model estimate with gains in gold and metal prices more than offsetting weakness in oil prices. The model’s rates factor also lifted the model estimate with both level and curvature the notable contributors.” Their short-term fair value model for the pair now sits at $0.7080