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NATGAS: Henry Hub Maintains Bullish Trend Amid Low Produciton and Warm Weather

NATGAS
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Henry Hub front month is edging higher again to maintain the rising trend so far this month despite a pull back from a peak of $2.436/mmbtu yesterday.  A drop in domestic production since the hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico earlier this month and a falling gas storage surplus in recent weeks is set against a warm weather forecast expected to limit heating demand.

  • US domestic natural gas production was down on the day to 99.8bcf/d yesterday, according to Bloomberg, compared to an average of 101.9bcf/d in the first week of September.
  • Feedgas flows to US LNG export terminals are down on the day to 12.69bcf/d today driven by below normal flows to Corpus Christi, according to BNEF.
  • Domestic natural gas demand remains relatively stable at 72.4bcf/d, according to Bloomberg, and still above the seasonal normal of around 65.5bcf/d. The temperature forecast for lower 48 remains above normal throughput the coming two weeks.
  • Export flows to Mexico are today estimated up again on the day to 7.0bcf/d, according to Bloomberg.
  • Nymex Henry Hub daily aggregate traded futures volume was 483k on Sept. 17.
    • US Natgas OCT 24 up 1% at 2.35$/mmbtu
    • US Natgas MAR 25 up 0.6% at 2.93$/mmbtu
    • US Natgas SEP 25 up 0.4% at 3.15$/mmbtu
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Henry Hub front month is edging higher again to maintain the rising trend so far this month despite a pull back from a peak of $2.436/mmbtu yesterday.  A drop in domestic production since the hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico earlier this month and a falling gas storage surplus in recent weeks is set against a warm weather forecast expected to limit heating demand.

  • US domestic natural gas production was down on the day to 99.8bcf/d yesterday, according to Bloomberg, compared to an average of 101.9bcf/d in the first week of September.
  • Feedgas flows to US LNG export terminals are down on the day to 12.69bcf/d today driven by below normal flows to Corpus Christi, according to BNEF.
  • Domestic natural gas demand remains relatively stable at 72.4bcf/d, according to Bloomberg, and still above the seasonal normal of around 65.5bcf/d. The temperature forecast for lower 48 remains above normal throughput the coming two weeks.
  • Export flows to Mexico are today estimated up again on the day to 7.0bcf/d, according to Bloomberg.
  • Nymex Henry Hub daily aggregate traded futures volume was 483k on Sept. 17.
    • US Natgas OCT 24 up 1% at 2.35$/mmbtu
    • US Natgas MAR 25 up 0.6% at 2.93$/mmbtu
    • US Natgas SEP 25 up 0.4% at 3.15$/mmbtu