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NATGAS: Henry Hub Set for Net Weekly Decline Amid Mixed Weather Forecast

NATGAS

Henry Hub front month is trading near the previous close but set for a net decline on the week amid mixed weather forecasts as restoration efforts are underway following Hurricane Milton. Global energy market focus remains on the supply uncertainty from the Middle East.

  • The EIA weekly gas inventories for the week ending Oct. 4 showed an above expectation but below average injection rate of 82bcf compared to the seasonal normal injection of about 96bcf. US working gas storage inventories now hold a surplus of 176bcf above the five-year average.
  • Lower 48 natural gas demand is estimated back down towards normal levels at 66.7bcf/d today, according to Bloomberg compared to a seasonal average of around 64bcf/d. The NOAA 6-10 day forecast has turned slightly warmer for the east and now showing temperatures closer to normal, while the west coast forecast has cooled to near normal but central areas remain warm.
  • US LNG export terminal feedgas supply is back up to 12.46bcf/d today, BNEF shows, after a brief drop of about 0.7bcf/d in Sabine Pass feedgas yesterday. Cove Point is showing a small increase in supply with the end of maintenance expected shortly.
  • US domestic natural gas production was up at the highest since early September at 102.1bcf/d today, according to Bloomberg, compared to an average of 101.3bcf/d so far this month.
  • Export flows to Mexico are unchanged on the day at 6.8bcf/d, according to Bloomberg.
  • Nymex Henry Hub daily aggregate traded futures volume was 593k on Oct. 10.
    • US Natgas NOV 24 unchanged at 2.68$/mmbtu
    • US Natgas DEC 24 up 0.1% at 3.1$/mmbtu
    • US Natgas OCT 25 down 0.4% at 3.33$/mmbtu
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Henry Hub front month is trading near the previous close but set for a net decline on the week amid mixed weather forecasts as restoration efforts are underway following Hurricane Milton. Global energy market focus remains on the supply uncertainty from the Middle East.

  • The EIA weekly gas inventories for the week ending Oct. 4 showed an above expectation but below average injection rate of 82bcf compared to the seasonal normal injection of about 96bcf. US working gas storage inventories now hold a surplus of 176bcf above the five-year average.
  • Lower 48 natural gas demand is estimated back down towards normal levels at 66.7bcf/d today, according to Bloomberg compared to a seasonal average of around 64bcf/d. The NOAA 6-10 day forecast has turned slightly warmer for the east and now showing temperatures closer to normal, while the west coast forecast has cooled to near normal but central areas remain warm.
  • US LNG export terminal feedgas supply is back up to 12.46bcf/d today, BNEF shows, after a brief drop of about 0.7bcf/d in Sabine Pass feedgas yesterday. Cove Point is showing a small increase in supply with the end of maintenance expected shortly.
  • US domestic natural gas production was up at the highest since early September at 102.1bcf/d today, according to Bloomberg, compared to an average of 101.3bcf/d so far this month.
  • Export flows to Mexico are unchanged on the day at 6.8bcf/d, according to Bloomberg.
  • Nymex Henry Hub daily aggregate traded futures volume was 593k on Oct. 10.
    • US Natgas NOV 24 unchanged at 2.68$/mmbtu
    • US Natgas DEC 24 up 0.1% at 3.1$/mmbtu
    • US Natgas OCT 25 down 0.4% at 3.33$/mmbtu