NATGAS: Mid-Day Gas Summary: TTF Supported

TTF is finding support today, supported by colder weather this week and ongoing cuts to pipeline gas supplies from Norway and Algeria. Further Egyptian LNG buying is also adding to competition for global LNG supplies. 

• TTF OCT 24 up 2.1% at 37.25€/MWh
• Additional upside risk comes from potential disruption to US LNG supplies due to a storm which is forecast to become a hurricane before it reaches the northwestern U.S. Gulf Coast by the middle of the week.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today nominated at 184.6mcm/d, according to Bloomberg. Gassco shows outages of 186mcm/d today and expected to remain at similar levels throughout this week.
• Temperatures in NW Europe are forecast to gradually decline in the coming days before slowly recovering back towards seasonal normal levels after the middle of the month.
• European gas storage edges up to 92.85% full on Sep 7 according to GIE compared to the five-year average of 86.2% with low injections rates during the period of tighter pipeline supplies.
• Platts raised its upcoming TTF forecasts for Q4 onwards, reflecting Europe’s need to pull more LNG to refill stocks above 90%, amid a tighter global LNG market.
• Goldman Sachs has increased its price forecast for TTF winter 24/25 to 40 Eur/MWh, compared to EUR35/MWh previously.
• The second train at Shell’s Curtis LNG facility in Australia resumed operations on Friday night the company said.
• China has boosted underground storage of natural gas, amid early preparations for peak winter demand, according to Bloomberg.
• China’s Sinopec has received its first LNG cargo at its new terminal in southern Guandong the company said via a press release.
• ADNOC has agreed a heads of agreement to supply Indian Oil with 1m mtpa of LNG for 15 years, according to ADNOC.