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NATGAS: No Gas Transit Expected Via Ukraine from 2025: Platts

NATGAS
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Platts does not expect any new gas transit deal – whether Russian or Azeri – for flows to Europe via Ukraine.

  • In Platts base case scenario – considering normal winter temperatures – Europe will be made more reliant on alternate supply, mostly LNG.
  • The additional LNG volumes will be needed to refill stocks in summer 25.
  • Prices could rise to coal-gas switching levels, allowing the continent to pull sufficient supply.
  • Platts considers the risk premium to the current transit deal ending as already built into pricing for winter 24 contracts.
  • It also does not expect any significant drop in winter-24 or summer-25 contracts.
  • Despite headlines last week talking up a potential deal, the European Commission is not involved in any talks to facilitate continued transit of natural gas via Ukraine, Ditte Jorgensen, director general for energy said, cited by Bloomberg.
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Platts does not expect any new gas transit deal – whether Russian or Azeri – for flows to Europe via Ukraine.

  • In Platts base case scenario – considering normal winter temperatures – Europe will be made more reliant on alternate supply, mostly LNG.
  • The additional LNG volumes will be needed to refill stocks in summer 25.
  • Prices could rise to coal-gas switching levels, allowing the continent to pull sufficient supply.
  • Platts considers the risk premium to the current transit deal ending as already built into pricing for winter 24 contracts.
  • It also does not expect any significant drop in winter-24 or summer-25 contracts.
  • Despite headlines last week talking up a potential deal, the European Commission is not involved in any talks to facilitate continued transit of natural gas via Ukraine, Ditte Jorgensen, director general for energy said, cited by Bloomberg.