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NATGAS: Prospects fade for gas flows via Ukraine beyond 2024: Montel

NATGAS
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Ukraine has reiterated that it will not forge any further deals with Russia’s Gazprom to pump gas to Europe in 2025, but despite “rumours and suggestions”, the prospects for non-Gazprom flows are increasingly unlikely, analysts told Montel.

  • “My base-case scenario is still no flows next year, or a slim chance of them continuing,” Yuriy Onyshkiv, a gas market analyst at LSEG told Montel.
  • “We keep hearing still about the possibility of flows continuing next year, and clearly some closed talks continue, but as of now, nothing materially has changed to suggest the flows will continue,” Onyshkiv added.
  • According to Onyshkiv, rumours are likely to continue circulating, but if there is any continuation, it will likely be agreed at the last minute.
  • A source with Ukraine’s Gas TSO said it was already repurposing some gas transit infrastructure to focus on supplying the domestic market and EU storage needs.
  • While talks are ongoing with Azerbaijan, analysts doubt whether Baku has surplus gas to sell.
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Ukraine has reiterated that it will not forge any further deals with Russia’s Gazprom to pump gas to Europe in 2025, but despite “rumours and suggestions”, the prospects for non-Gazprom flows are increasingly unlikely, analysts told Montel.

  • “My base-case scenario is still no flows next year, or a slim chance of them continuing,” Yuriy Onyshkiv, a gas market analyst at LSEG told Montel.
  • “We keep hearing still about the possibility of flows continuing next year, and clearly some closed talks continue, but as of now, nothing materially has changed to suggest the flows will continue,” Onyshkiv added.
  • According to Onyshkiv, rumours are likely to continue circulating, but if there is any continuation, it will likely be agreed at the last minute.
  • A source with Ukraine’s Gas TSO said it was already repurposing some gas transit infrastructure to focus on supplying the domestic market and EU storage needs.
  • While talks are ongoing with Azerbaijan, analysts doubt whether Baku has surplus gas to sell.