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NATGAS: Rangebound TTF Weighs Healthy Storage Against Supply Risks

NATGAS

TTF front month is still holding within the €38.5/MWh to €40.45/MWh range seen since Aug. 13 as gas storage approaches EU target levels to help offset ongoing supply sensitivity ahead of the Norwegian maintenance season.

  • Gas transit flows via Sudzha are still nominated near normal at 42.4mcm/d today, according to Ukraine’s gas transmission operator.
  • Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are unchanged on the day at 324.0mcm/d today with, Gassco showing capacity reductions of 23mcm/d today rising to 43mcm/d on Aug 24.
  • Temperatures in NW Europe but are forecast to warm back above normal towards the end of the month and into the start of September. 
  • European gas stores were just below the EU pre winter target at 89.77% full on Aug 18 according to GIE compared to the five year average of 81.7% as net injections rise above normal.
  • European LNG sendout is edging up to 228mcm/d on Aug 18 according to Bloomberg compared to an average of 219mcm/d over the previous week.
  • Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara is today at 59.7cm/d.
  • ICE TTF daily aggregate traded futures volume was 200k on Aug 19.
    • TTF SEP 24 down 0.9% at 39.48€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 24 down 1% at 42.57€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 25 down 0.4% at 41.2€/MWh
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