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NATGAS: Tighter EU gas market at risk of winter price swings: Axpo

NATGAS
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Europe’s gas market will enter this winter with comfortable stock levels, but a lack of flexible supply amid an increased dependence on LNG could leave the market vulnerable to price swings, Axpo’s Marco Saalfrank, told Montel.

  • September and October were already forecast to be colder than the last two years, when Europe benefited from “very mild” winters, he said.
  • Saalfrank added that there is a risk of LNG supply disruptions due to the US hurricane season and Middle East tensions. This is coupled with competing demand from Asia.
  • The loss of Russian flows via Ukraine, around 14 bcm/y, leaves a lingering question on how that supply will be replaced.
  • Saalfrank noted last week’s volatility amid an erroneous headline that an Azeri-Ukraine transit deal was already done. He expects such volatility to continue.
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Europe’s gas market will enter this winter with comfortable stock levels, but a lack of flexible supply amid an increased dependence on LNG could leave the market vulnerable to price swings, Axpo’s Marco Saalfrank, told Montel.

  • September and October were already forecast to be colder than the last two years, when Europe benefited from “very mild” winters, he said.
  • Saalfrank added that there is a risk of LNG supply disruptions due to the US hurricane season and Middle East tensions. This is coupled with competing demand from Asia.
  • The loss of Russian flows via Ukraine, around 14 bcm/y, leaves a lingering question on how that supply will be replaced.
  • Saalfrank noted last week’s volatility amid an erroneous headline that an Azeri-Ukraine transit deal was already done. He expects such volatility to continue.