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NATGAS: TTF Drifts Off High Amid Easing Supply Risks

NATGAS
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TTF is holding just below the high of €37.61/MWh from yesterday amid further extensions to Norwegian outages, cold weather this weekend and uncertainty around future transit gas via Ukraine. Hope of progress towards a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah have eased escalation risks while Hurricane Helene looks to be missing US LNG export terminals. 

  • Efforts led by Amos Hochstein for a ceasefire between Isreael and Hezbollah in Lebanon are serious and very advanced, according to Roi Kais at Kann.
  • Temperatures in NW Europe are expected to fall below normal over the coming days before recovering back to near normal or just below next week and through the first week of October.
  • Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are nominated at 267.3mcm/d today, according to Bloomberg. Gassco shows outages up to 78.7mcm/d today amid extended works but is currently expected to fall to 38.6mcm/d by the end of the month.
  • Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara is estimated at 49.5mcm/d today, according to Bloomberg.
  • Gas transit flows via Sudzha are nominated at 42.4mcm/d today, according to Ukraine’s gas transmission operator.
  • European LNG sendout was relatively unchanged on the day at 247mcm/d on Sept. 24, according to Bloomberg, compared to an average of 251mcm/d over the previous week.
  • European gas storage is up to 93.9% of capacity on Sep 24, according to GIE, compared to the five-year average of 89.1%.
  • ICE TTF daily aggregate traded futures volume was 332k on Sep 25.
    • TTF OCT 24 down 0.9% at 37€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 24 down 0.7% at 37.95€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 25 down 0.5% at 36.65€/MWh
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TTF is holding just below the high of €37.61/MWh from yesterday amid further extensions to Norwegian outages, cold weather this weekend and uncertainty around future transit gas via Ukraine. Hope of progress towards a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah have eased escalation risks while Hurricane Helene looks to be missing US LNG export terminals. 

  • Efforts led by Amos Hochstein for a ceasefire between Isreael and Hezbollah in Lebanon are serious and very advanced, according to Roi Kais at Kann.
  • Temperatures in NW Europe are expected to fall below normal over the coming days before recovering back to near normal or just below next week and through the first week of October.
  • Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are nominated at 267.3mcm/d today, according to Bloomberg. Gassco shows outages up to 78.7mcm/d today amid extended works but is currently expected to fall to 38.6mcm/d by the end of the month.
  • Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara is estimated at 49.5mcm/d today, according to Bloomberg.
  • Gas transit flows via Sudzha are nominated at 42.4mcm/d today, according to Ukraine’s gas transmission operator.
  • European LNG sendout was relatively unchanged on the day at 247mcm/d on Sept. 24, according to Bloomberg, compared to an average of 251mcm/d over the previous week.
  • European gas storage is up to 93.9% of capacity on Sep 24, according to GIE, compared to the five-year average of 89.1%.
  • ICE TTF daily aggregate traded futures volume was 332k on Sep 25.
    • TTF OCT 24 down 0.9% at 37€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 24 down 0.7% at 37.95€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 25 down 0.5% at 36.65€/MWh