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NATGAS: TTF Edges Lower Despite Norway Maintenance

NATGAS

TTF front month is edging down towards the low of €37.915/MWh from Aug 29 with high storage ahead of the winter heating season offsetting geopolitical risks. The current Norwegian maintenance season is reaching a peak with capacity reduction smaller than seen last year.

  • Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe have fallen to 173.1mcm/d today, according to Bloomberg. Gassco shows capacity reductions of 200mcm/d today rising back to 237mcm/d tomorrow before the outages reduce to 165mcm/d by the end of the week.
  • European LNG sendout was at 241mcm/d on Aug 31 according to Bloomberg with supply above levels seen in early August to cover for the lower pipeline supplies into Europe.
  • The weather forecast shows temperatures are expected above normal in NW and central Europe this week but could drift back to normal towards the middle of the month.
  • European gas storage is 92.4% full on Sep 1 according to GIE compared to the five year average of 85.0%.
  • Gas transit flows via Sudzha are nominated at 42.4mcm/d today, according to Ukraine’s gas transmission operator.
  • Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara is today down to 43.1cm/d, according to Bloomberg.
  • ICE TTF daily aggregate traded futures volume was 178k on Sep 2.
    • TTF OCT 24 down 0.9% at 38.24€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 24 down 0.8% at 40.4€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 25 down 0.4% at 39.33€/MWh
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