NATGAS: TTF Holds Gains Wtih Rising Norway Outages This Week

TTF front month is almost unchanged on the day after a rally yesterday amid thin volumes with support from the ramp up in Norwegian maintenance this week. Prices remain supported despite healthy storage with concern for tighter supplies over winter amid the risk of unplanned supply disruption and cold weather. 

• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are relatively unchanged on the day at 312.8mcm/d, according to Bloomberg. Gassco shows capacity reductions of 34.4mcm/d today will gradually rise in the coming week to a peak of 183.5mcm/d on Sept. 2.
• Temperatures in NW Europe are expected above normal into the start of September before easing lower back to near normal in the second week of the outlook.
• Gas transit flows via Sudzha are nominated near normal at 42.4mcm/d today, according to Ukraine’s gas transmission operator.
• European gas storage injections continue above normal rates as stores build beyond the EU target level up to 91.6% full on Aug 25 according to GIE compared to the five year average of 83.6%.
• European LNG sendout was holding steady at 199mcm/d on Aug 25 according to Bloomberg compared to an average of 208mcm/d so far in August.
• Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara is today at 52.8cm/d, according to Bloomberg.
• ICE TTF daily aggregate traded futures volume was down at 99k on Aug 26 amid the UK holiday.
  • TTF SEP 24 down 0.7% at 37.4€/MWh
  • TTF WIN 24 down 1% at 40.39€/MWh
  • TTF SUM 25 down 0.6% at 39.67€/MWh