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NATGAS: TTF Holds Recent Gains as Norwegian Maintenance Ramps Up

NATGAS

TTF front month is holding onto recent gains after a rally from a low of €36.1/MWh on Aug 23 with focus on tightening supplies during the Norwegian maintenance season.  Conflict in Ukraine and the Middle East, and LNG competition from Asia remain upside risks despite healthy gas in store.

  • Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are down to the lowest since early June at 305.7mcm/d, according to Bloomberg as the maintenance season starts to ramp up. Gassco shows capacity reductions of 42.4mcm/d today rising to 237.25mcm/d on Sept. 2.
  • Temperatures in NW Europe are expected to hold above normal over the coming two weeks although are forecast to drift back closer to normal during the second week. 
  • Gas transit flows via Sudzha are nominated near normal at 42.4mcm/d today, according to Ukraine’s gas transmission operator.
  • European gas storage injections are holding near normal rates, taking stores up to 91.83% full on Aug 26 according to GIE compared to the five year average of 83.8%.
  • European LNG sendout was up slightly to 217mcm/d on Aug 26 according to Bloomberg compared to an average of 201mcm/d over the previous week.
  • Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara is today at 59.3cm/d, according to Bloomberg.
  • ICE TTF daily aggregate traded futures volume was 290k on Aug 27.
    • TTF SEP 24 up 0.4% at 38.85€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 24 up 0.3% at 41.64€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 25 up 0.3% at 40.33€/MWh
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