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NATGAS: TTF Holds Steady Amid Normal European Gas Supplies

NATGAS

TTF front month has stabilised between about €38.7/MWh and €40.4/MWh yesterday with supplies to Europe steady despite the supply risks from Ukraine/Russia and Middle East conflicts. 

  • Gas transit flows through Ukraine are again nominated at the normal level at 42.4mcm/d today, according to Ukraine’s gas transmission operator.
  • Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today nominated at 332mcm/d with capacity reductions of 25.6mcm/d today falling to 16mcm/d tomorrow according to Gassco.
  • The temperature forecast for NW Europe remains relatively unchanged on the day with a cooling trend back to near normal in the coming days with at or slightly above normal expected in the second week of the outlook. 
  • European gas in store is edging towards the EU pre winter target up to 87.85% full on Aug 12 according to GIE compared to the five year average of 79.8%.
  • European LNG sendout increased slightly to 215mcm/d on Aug 12 according to Bloomberg but remains near the lowest since 2021.
  • Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara is today at 55.4cm/d.
  • ICE TTF daily aggregate traded futures volume was back down to 259k on Aug 13.
    • TTF SEP 24 up 0.9% at 39.85€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 24 up 1% at 42.93€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 25 up 1.3% at 41.29€/MWh

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