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NATGAS: TTF Holds Within €2/MWh Range Amid Supply Risks but Healthy Storage

NATGAS

TTF front month is holding within the €38.5/MWh to €40.4/MWh range seen since Aug. 13 with Ukraine transit supply risks and Norwegian outages weighed against muted demand as storage approaches EU target levels.

  • Gas transit flows via Sudzha have so far not been impact by Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk and are nominated at 42.05mcm/d today, according to Ukraine’s gas transmission operator.
  • Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are down to 324.3mcm/d today with planned and unplanned capacity reductions of 24.6mcm/d today, Gassco shows. Equinor shut down production at Gullfaks C on Aug 18 and evacuated some workers as a precaution following a well incident. Other Gullfaks platforms were running as normal.
  • Temperatures in NW Europe are expected near normal in the coming days but are forecast to edge slightly above normal towards the end of the month and into the start of September.
  • European gas stores are up to 89.4% full on Aug 17 according to GIE compared to the five year average of 81.4% as net injections rise to near normal levels.
  • European LNG sendout is holding steady at 222mcm/d on Aug 17 according to Bloomberg compared to an average of 208mcm/d so far in August.
  • Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara has rebounded to 56.6cm/d.
  • ICE TTF daily aggregate traded futures volume was back down to 215k on Aug 16.
    • TTF SEP 24 down 0.8% at 39.35€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 24 down 0.9% at 42.73€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 25 down 0.6% at 41.35€/MWh
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