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NATGAS: TTF Steadies After Pull Back on Warm Forecast

NATGAS
Energy BulletsBulletPower BulletsCommodities

TTF front month is holding steady today after easing lower so far this week with the return of warm weather next week and as the Middle East risk premium has eased as energy markets await Israel’s response to Iran.

  • Weather in NW Europe is expected to warm into next week from the current below normal temperatures. The second half of the month is then expected to remain above normal to help limit heating demand.
  • Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are nominated at 310.7mcm/d today, according to Bloomberg. Gassco shows outages down to 39.8mcm/d today but unplanned outages at Troll and Gullfaks continue.
  • European LNG sendout was 253mcm/d on Oct. 8, according to Bloomberg, compared to an average of 269mcm/d in the previous week.
  • European gas storage was up to 94.64% full on Oct. 8, according to GIE, compared to the five-year average of 91.3% as small net injections continue.
  • Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara is today estimated up at the highest since May at 66.0mcm/d, according to Bloomberg.
  • Gas transit flows via Sudzha are nominated at 42.3mcm/d today, according to Ukraine’s gas transmission operator.
  • ICE TTF daily aggregate traded futures volume was 275k on Oct. 9.
    • TTF NOV 24 up 0.1% at 38.37€/MWh
    • TTF Q1 25 up 0% at 39.2€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 25 up 0.5% at 37.65€/MWh
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TTF front month is holding steady today after easing lower so far this week with the return of warm weather next week and as the Middle East risk premium has eased as energy markets await Israel’s response to Iran.

  • Weather in NW Europe is expected to warm into next week from the current below normal temperatures. The second half of the month is then expected to remain above normal to help limit heating demand.
  • Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are nominated at 310.7mcm/d today, according to Bloomberg. Gassco shows outages down to 39.8mcm/d today but unplanned outages at Troll and Gullfaks continue.
  • European LNG sendout was 253mcm/d on Oct. 8, according to Bloomberg, compared to an average of 269mcm/d in the previous week.
  • European gas storage was up to 94.64% full on Oct. 8, according to GIE, compared to the five-year average of 91.3% as small net injections continue.
  • Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara is today estimated up at the highest since May at 66.0mcm/d, according to Bloomberg.
  • Gas transit flows via Sudzha are nominated at 42.3mcm/d today, according to Ukraine’s gas transmission operator.
  • ICE TTF daily aggregate traded futures volume was 275k on Oct. 9.
    • TTF NOV 24 up 0.1% at 38.37€/MWh
    • TTF Q1 25 up 0% at 39.2€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 25 up 0.5% at 37.65€/MWh