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NATGAS: TTF Weighs Supply Risks Against Stable Fundmanentals

NATGAS

TTF front month is relatively unchanged on the day but set for a small net gain on the week with stable fundamentals and the gradual restocking of gas stores set against LNG supply and weather risks.

  • Temperatures in NW Europe are forecast above normal into the weekend before easing back to near normal or even slightly below next week. The second week of the outlook suggests near or slightly above normal temperatures for the region. 
  • Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today nominated at 335.3mcm/d with Gassco showing outages of 21.1mcm/d today and into the weekend.
  • European LNG sendout is back up to 253mcm/d on July 17 according to Bloomberg after recovering from a low of 218mcm/d over last weekend. Sendout is in line with an average of 248mcm/d seen in June 24 but well below an average of 324mcm/d in July last year.
  • European gas storage injections have risen to 81.83% full on July 17 according to GIE amid steady injections compared to the five year average of 72.3%.
  • Gas transit flows through Ukraine are at 42.4mcm/d today and Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara are at 58.1cm/d.
  • ICE TTF daily aggregate traded futures volume was at 213k on July 18.
    • TTF AUG 24 up 0.2% at 32.74€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 24 down 0.5% at 37.46€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 25 down 0% at 36.17€/MWh

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