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NATGAS: Win24 and Sum25 Henry Hub Revised Lower Amid Softening Balance: Goldman

NATGAS
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A previously expected rally in Henry Hub gas in early sum25 will be delayed into late 2025, according to Goldman Sachs. 

  • The change is driven by front-loaded Haynesville growth, higher Permian output and delayed Plaquemines LNG exports.
  • Storage expectations have been revised significantly higher to 1925bcf in Mar25 and 3856bcf in Oct25.
  • The win24-25 U.S. gas price forecast have been revised down to $3.10/mmbtu from $3.25/mmbtu due to a softening balance by 0.6 Bcf/d. Sum25 is revised down to $3.40/mmbtu from $4.00/mmbtu previously.
  • The turning point from incentivizing producer discipline below $3/mmBtu to incentivizing higher drilling at $3.75-$4.00/mmbtu will be delayed and poses risk of tightening balances in 2026.
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A previously expected rally in Henry Hub gas in early sum25 will be delayed into late 2025, according to Goldman Sachs. 

  • The change is driven by front-loaded Haynesville growth, higher Permian output and delayed Plaquemines LNG exports.
  • Storage expectations have been revised significantly higher to 1925bcf in Mar25 and 3856bcf in Oct25.
  • The win24-25 U.S. gas price forecast have been revised down to $3.10/mmbtu from $3.25/mmbtu due to a softening balance by 0.6 Bcf/d. Sum25 is revised down to $3.40/mmbtu from $4.00/mmbtu previously.
  • The turning point from incentivizing producer discipline below $3/mmBtu to incentivizing higher drilling at $3.75-$4.00/mmbtu will be delayed and poses risk of tightening balances in 2026.