Natural Gas End of Day Summary: Henry Hub Lowest Since Mid-May

Henry Hub is on track for its lowest close since May 15. The ongoing retreat is driven by a recent recovery in US production, a softening in cooling demand expectations, and ongoing curtailment to US LNG export feedgas flows. Reuters analysts also forecast US natgas storage to be currently about 19% above average.

• US Natgas AUG 24 down 4.4% at 2.49$/mmbtu
• US Natgas JAN 25 down 1.6% at 3.76$/mmbtu
• US natural gas storage is forecast to have showed another below-average build in the week to June 28, according to a Reuters poll of three analysts.
• US cooling demand for the week ending July 6 is forecast to be 17 cooling degree days (CDD) above the long-term normal, according to Bloomberg, citing the NOAA.
• US domestic natural gas production was yesterday up at 102.0bcf/d, according to Bloomberg, compared to an average of 100.7bcf/d across the whole of June 2024.
• US LNG export terminal feedgas flows are today estimated at 12.9bcf/d, according to Bloomberg.
• Domestic natural gas demand remains slightly above normal at 74.4bcf/d today according to Bloomberg.
• Global LNG FID activity remained strong in H1 2024, despite no US projects taking FID amid the regulatory uncertainty following the Biden administration export permitting pause, according to IEA.
• China’s LNG imports fell in June for the first time in over a year according to Kpler vessel tracking.
• Asian LNG spot prices will likely remain rangebound in the next three months, averaging around $10-$12/MMBtu, unless the market faces a significant external shock, Summit Group Chairman Muhammed Aziz Khan told Platts.
• EU sanctions that prohibited transshipment of Russian LNG at European ports could lead to increased volumes arriving in Europe, according to Montel sources.