Natural Gas End of Day Summary: TTF Lowest Since Aug. 1

Front month TTF is headed for a five and half month low close as heating demand in Europe is expected to fall with warmer weather next week. High storage levels and a rebound in LNG flows into Europe are adding further pressure.

• TTF FEB 24 down -6.8% at 27.63€/MWh
• TTF SUM 24 down -6.4% at 27.95€/MWh
• Global LNG traffic through the Bab al-Mandab strait has decreased significantly, with only one tanker sailing the waterway currently according to Bloomberg ship tracking and ICIS.
• Temperatures in NW Europe are expected to warm over the coming weekend with above normal temperatures expected from Jan 21 until the end of the month.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are nominated slightly up from yesterday at 349.7mcm/d today.
• European natural gas storage was down to 78.58% full on Jan 15 according to GIE data.
• European gas storage withdrawals are back near seasonal normal levels after surging up to an average of 62% above normal on Jan 8-12.
• LNG stockpiles held by Japanese utilities rose by 2.79% last week to 2.58mn tons as of 14 January according to data released by the trade ministry.
• Mexico Pacific will supply an additional 1.2mtpa of LNG to Exxon Mobil for the duration of 20 years, the firm said, cited by Reuters.
• LNG freight prices are weakening despite increased tanker diversions away from the Red Sea via the Cape of Good Hope, according to Spark Commodities.
• The arbitrage economics of pulling US cargoes to Asia over Europe have been in negative territory since Jan. 3, according to Platts, following a general trend since September.
• The International Monetary Fund expect the group led by TotalEnergies to resume work on an LNG project in Mozambique.