Natural Gas Summary at European Close: TTF Rises

TTF front month is up strongly today with a slow return of Freeport LNG and with a dip in LNG imports and Norwegian pipeline supplies.

• TTF AUG 24 up 4.4% at 32.76€/MWh
• Gas nominations for Freeport LNG in Texas rose on Tuesday according to BNEF numbers – indicating the expected restart after the Hurricane Beryl shutdown.
• Temperatures across Europe are forecast above normal with temperatures in NW Europe rising in the coming days.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are nominated down to 330.8mcm/d.
• European gas storage injections have risen to 81.02% full on July 14 according to GIE compared to the five-year average of 71.5%.
• The total estimated quantity of LNG on tankers that have not unloaded for at least 20 days fell by 3.8% last week to 3.83m tons as of July 14, according to Bloomberg estimates.
• The EU could require about 7.2bcm of gas to be sourced from the LNG market through terminals in Poland, Germany, Lithuania, and Italy to replace gas transiting Ukraine, Rystad said.
• Energy Transfer's 16.5mtpa Lake Charles and Commonwealth LNG's 9.5mtpa project are pushing the DOE to act promptly on their pending LNG export permits.
• Russian natural gas pipeline flows to the EU jumped by 24% in the first half of 2024 vs the same period in 2023.
• Russia's Arctic LNG 2 project cut natural gas output in May to around 55mcm from 215mcm in April, according to a Reuters source.
• Gas demand returned to growth and rose 3% yoy in H1 2024, primarily supported by the fast-growing Asian markets and industry according to the IEA Q3 Gas Market Report.