Natural Gas Summary at European Close: TTF Trading Lower

European gas prices have reversed earlier gains to be trending lower on the day after Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah gave a speech suggesting no knowledge of the Hamas attacks on Israel last month – somewhat deescalating tensions in the region that have impacted gas supplies for Europe ahead of winter. TTF is down round 4.5% on the start of the week.

• TTF DEC 23 down -0.4% at 48.37€/MWh
• TTF Q1 24 down -0.1% at 50.4€/MWh
• Israel’s natural gas exports to Egypt have resumed but are still reduced, an official in Egypt's petroleum ministry said on Thursday. Argus Media reported on Tuesday flows had resumed. Egypt’s natural gas imports from Israel are currently at 250mcf/d, compared with 800mcf/d normally, a person with knowledge of the matter told Bloomberg.
• A partial LNG cargo is approaching Egypt’s LNG terminal, possibly signalling that the country is looking to fill gaps in its supply with additional imports, Bloomberg said.
• The latest weather forecast is showing temperatures holding just above or at normal throughout the two-week outlook.
• European gas demand rose in October around 1%, the first year on year increase since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, IEA Gas Analyst Greg Molnar said in a post on LinkedIn.
• Austrian natural gas consumption during April-September fell by 7.3% on the year, E-Control data showed. September gas demand stood at 3.86TWh, down by 1.06TWh, or 21.6%, from last year’s levels.
• German natural gas output for power generation in October rose by 66.6% on the year, driven by slightly lower renewables output this year and the halt to nuclear-fired generation as of April this year, Fraunhofer ISE data showed.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are back down at 312mcm/d with an unplanned outage at SEGAL fields due to process problems at Gjøa field currently expected until 13 Nov.
• European natural gas storage levels are still building slightly and up to 99.41% full on 1 Nov according to GIE data compared to the five year average of 90.2%.
• Total European LNG sendout was holding steady at 377mcm/d on 1 Nov after rising from around 350mcm/d early this week.
• The latest US sanctions on Russian LNG could threaten Japan’s drive for energy security with the measures directly targeted at a major entity involved in the development the Russia Arctic LNG 2 project according to Bloomberg.
• The global volume of the LNG market will reach 750-800 bcm by 2030 LNG with consumption up to about 190 bcm according to Tass citing Leonid Mikhelson, CEO of Novatek.
• Deutsche ReGas will auction short-term LNG regasification capacity for H2 2024 at its Baltic Sea Mukran terminal, according to a press release.
• Germany’s security of gas supplies this winter is ensured if temperatures will be within the seasonal norm, according to regulator Bnetza.
• The second cargo since the Balticconnector outage on 8 October is scheduled to arrive at Finland’s Inkoo LNG terminal Friday night, LSEG vessel-tracking data showed.
• LNG supplies to Europe this winter will not be impacted by the new US sanctions on Russia’s 27bcm/year Arctic LNG 2 project but there could be a mid- to long-term impact according to Montel sources.