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(H2) Approaching A Key Support




US and Germany


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  • Even though market is currently expecting the NBH to hike by 15bps tomorrow (Oct 19), odds for a more aggressive hike (i.e. 30bps) are still elevated given the board's sensitivity to rising inflationary pressures.
  • Although EURHUF is still trading below the 370 'key resistance', selling pressure could increase if NBH follows consensus with a 15bps hike.
  • Policymakers mentioned at different occasions their intension to slow down the pace of the tightening cycle until the end of the year.
  • With inflationary pressures expected to last until the end of 2021, the sharp 20% increase in minimum wage combined with a potential hike in public sector wages for next year could potentially lead to a slower convergence of inflation down to the 3% target within the next 12 months.
  • EURHUF has been retracing higher this morning, currently trading slightly above the 360 level; next resistance to watch on the topside stands at 362.50. On the downside, first support stands at 358.60, followed by 356.55 (200DMA).
  • Hungary 10Y yield continues to retrace higher, gradually approaching its 3.81% resistance; next level to watch above that level stands at 3.93%. On the downside, first support to watch stands at 3.61%, followed by 3.50%.