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- Forward rates continue to rise following the positive surprise in inflation last week; as a reminder, CPI inflation accelerated to 4.9% YoY in August (vs. 4.7% exp.). up from 4.6% the previous month.
- The chart below shows that FRA 6Mx9M has increased by 25bps since then and currently trades at 85bps above the Bubor 3M.
- After delivering three consecutive 30bps rate hikes since June, raising the policy rate to 1.5%, we think that the NBH will deliver smaller moves in the coming meetings and is likely to raise the policy rate by 15bps on September 21 despite rising inflationary pressures.
- Policymaker mentioned that the NBH will reassess the policy outlook at the September meeting.
- Hence, a 15bps at each of the last four 2021 meetings would lift up the policy rate to 2.1% at the end of the year.