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NBH Likely To Raise 'Core' Policy Rate by 100bps on March 22

HUNGARY
  • The NBH is likely to accelerate the pace of its tightening cycle following the recent adjustment via the 1W depo facility.
  • The NBH will probably proceed with a 100bps hike on its ‘core’ policy rate at tomorrow’s meeting, which would levitate the benchmark rate to 4.4%.
  • The central bank has increased the 1W depo rate by 125bps since the beginning of March to ease the selling pressure on HUF following the dramatic depreciation in CEE FX in the end of February/beginning of March.
  • The ‘slight improvement’ in the Russia/Ukraine conflict has led to a HUF recovery in the past two weeks.
  • EURHUF found support at 370 (key level) last week after consolidating from 400. A break below that level would have opened the door for a move down to 364.60 (100DMA). On the topside, resistance to watch stands at 376.50.
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