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NBH Needs a Long and Predictable Cycle in Policy Rate (Virag)

HUNGARY
  • In a recent interview, NBH Deputy Governor Virag mentioned that anchoring inflation expectations is key to avoid persistently high inflation. Inflation is expected to peak above 7% in November and is expected to decline slowly towards NBH target.
  • Virag added that the NBH need a long and predictable rate hike cycle in the policy rate.
  • Yesterday, PM Orban told lawmakers that Hungary will boost pensions by 5% in 2022 as inflationary pressures are expected to last longer than previously estimated.
  • Analysts have increased their inflation forecasts for next year, expecting inflation to stand at 4.5% at the end of 2022, above the NBH 4% upper tolerance band.
  • This morning, economic data showed that industrial output fell more than expected in October by -2.7% YoY (vs. -2% exp.), down from -1.7% the previous month.
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