NBP Analysts Expect Economic Rebound To Be Moderate, Disinflation To Continue

The NBP's Economic Analysis and Research Department concluded a press conference to present the latest macroeconomic projections prepared by the staff.

• In the Q&A session, department chief Witold Grostal refused to provide specific estimates of inflation and GDP growth if current rate-cut bets materialise.
• Grostal said that economic recovery from 2H2023 will be "moderate" while disinflation will continue, with headline consumer inflation expected to ease below +8% Y/Y in 4Q2023.
• He noted that "core inflation will be easing at a slower pace, but its greater inertia is a natural process, as the main disinflationary factors are energy and food prices."
• The Economic Analysis and Research Department reaffirmed that the new projection is not much different from what had been expected in March.
• They said that the 20% increase in the minimum wage next year "will boost the overall nominal wage growth in the economy by around 1pp."
• The new projection accounts for the planned increase in Poland's child benefit programme, for making 14th pension payouts permanent and for the implementation of subsidised 2% mortgages for first-time home buyers.
• The press conference can be watched here (in Polish).