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NBP: Core Inflation Miss Plays Into Evaluations Of NBP Rhetoric 2/2

NBP
  • Recent interviews with NBP members suggest that the Governor's views deviate to the hawkish side from the MPC consensus. In the recent days, Henryk Wnorowski told PAP that the Governor's comments "should not be understood [as suggesting] that rates will remain unchanged until 2026."
    • It should be noted that the paragraph summarising Wnorowski's words mentioned "end of 2026," while the direct quote referred just to the year 2026. It does not seem that anyone interpreted the Governor's comments as implying stable rates until end-2026 and we are inclined to assume that Wnorowski was pushing back against a sensible interpretation.
  • Separately, Ludwik Kotecki told Business Insider that this hawkish forward guidance "seems to be the view of only the NBP Governor" and "another interpretation or opinion which appeared in the NBP pointed to a slip of tongue, that maybe he meant another year." He then went on to say that "in my opinion Governor Glapinski misspoke."
  • Note that the Governor's comment suggesting that interest rates are unlikely to fall before 2026 took most observers off guard, with the first question during the Q&A session asking him to confirm if he really meant to say it. His previous guidance pointed to no change in rates until mid-2025.
  • When asked to discuss the Governor's comments in their recent interviews, Deputy Governor Marta Kightley and MPC's Henryk Wnorowski seemed to be trying to frame them as a mere summary of the NBP's latest macroeconomic forecast, which was based on the assumption of unchanged rates. It will be worth watching NBP speak in the coming weeks to see if there is any implicit attempt to row back on the hawkish forward guidance, or if the Governor sticks with it.
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