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NBP: Inflation Expected To Stay At +4.5%-5.0% Y/Y Through Year-End

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Governor Adam Glapinski says that the government's decisions on energy prices will largely determine the inflation path in 2025. As things stand, the NBP expects inflation to stay at +4.5%-5.0% Y/Y through the end of this year. Inflation will then remain elevated through mid-2025, before easing off and returning sustainably to the +2.5% Y/Y +/- 1pp target in 2026.

  • At the same time, the Governor concedes that senior cabinet members have flagged the possibility of extending current energy price shields, which introduces uncertainty on that front.
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Governor Adam Glapinski says that the government's decisions on energy prices will largely determine the inflation path in 2025. As things stand, the NBP expects inflation to stay at +4.5%-5.0% Y/Y through the end of this year. Inflation will then remain elevated through mid-2025, before easing off and returning sustainably to the +2.5% Y/Y +/- 1pp target in 2026.

  • At the same time, the Governor concedes that senior cabinet members have flagged the possibility of extending current energy price shields, which introduces uncertainty on that front.