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NBP's Kotecki Plays Down Potential For Rate Hikes, President Rules Out Early Election

POLAND
  • NBP's Ludwik Kotecki reaffirmed the familiar forecast of the inflation path this year, warning of a rebound to +6.0%-7.0% Y/Y in 2H2024. He told 300Gospodarka that interest-rate cuts in September and October were a mistake, but it cannot be fixed by raising rates now, because "nobody would understand it" and it would "not be effective". As a result, he expects interest rates to remain higher for longer. Kotecki added that the expected inflow of EU funds and POLGB sales to foreign investors may stimulate PLN appreciation and the central bank should collaborate with the government to reduce relevant risks.
  • President Andrzej Duda ruled out calling a snap election and clarified that if he refers the budget bill to the Constitutional Tribunal, this will not trigger a dissolution of parliament (as would be the case if parliament failed to pass the budget in time) He added that he "hopes" he will be able to sign the bill.
  • The Left will hold talks with the Civic Coalition on jointly contesting this year's local elections which will take place on April 7. The Third Way decided to run separately from its partners from the ruling coalition.
  • Poland's December PPI data will hit the wires at 09:00GMT/10:00CET.

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