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NBP's Kotecki Says Rates Will Likely Stay Unchanged This Year, CPI & GDP Data On Radar

POLAND
  • MPC's Ludwik Kotecki told a meeting of Warsaw School of Economics (SGH) students lowering rates by 100bp in September and October 2023 was "too early, without any strong reasons" to do so, which might trigger a discussion about raising rate towards the end of this year. He quickly added that this is unlikely at this point, but cannot entirely rule out such a possibility - although in his view interest rates should remain unchanged through the rest of this year. According to Kotecki, the neutral interest rates has likely been rising for the past 2-3 years, while "what the ECB or the Fed does with rates is not an indicator of anything for us."
  • Statistics Poland will release final April CPI and flash Q1 GDP data at 09:00BST/10:00CEST. The preliminary reading of headline inflation was +2.4% Y/Y, as price growth accelerated after printing a cyclical trough at +2.0% in March. Separately, the economy may have grown 1.8% Y/Y in the three months through end-March, according to a consensus of economists polled by Bloomberg.
  • Prime Minister Donald Tusk said he expects the probe against NBP Governor Adam Glapinski to accelerate after it hit procedural snags in parliament at an early stage. He said that "this slightly milder tone of Governor Glapinski's comments and a meeting with the Finance Minister did not change my assessment and the serious reasons for filing a motion [to bring the Governor to the] Tribunal of State."
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