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NBP Surprised The Market With a 40bps Hike Yesterday

POLAND
  • The NBP decided to increase its benchmark rate by 40bps to 0.5% at yesterday's meeting, following the positive surprise in inflation in recent months.
  • Consensus was still expecting interest rate to remain unchanged while economic recovery is taking place, with a potential 15bps hike in November.
  • As for its CEE peer the CNB (which also surprised market last week with a 75bps hike), NBP has now clearly embarked into a tightening cycle after remaining quiet for the past few months.
  • We have seen recently that the NBP board has been receiving external pressure from former policymakers and Polish PM to start raising rates to curb the inflationary pressures.
  • PM Mateusz Morawiecki, who usually do not comment on central bank's actions, mentioned that he was 'happy' with the NBP decision as it shows that the central bank 'recognized' the problem of inflation.
  • At 2pm (London time), Governor Glapinski will give a press conference on yesterday's meeting decision.
  • This morning, Constitutional Tribunal may rule on primacy of EU law.
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