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Near Term Crude Spreads Holding in Contango

OIL

Near term crude curve backwardation has softened with better than expected non-OPEC supplies and OPEC+ production cuts failing to provide much support. The Feb24-Mar24 Brent spread is holding steady in narrow contango after falling yesterday while the WTI prompt spread is still near the widest in nine months.

OPEC+ cuts have failed to support markets amid uncertainty over future member compliance and with building spare capacity.

  • US exports have held strong in recent weeks as end of year tax requirements encourage suppliers to minimise inventories as much as possible before the new year. US crude export have averaged around 4.85mbpd since mid October and holding above the previous five year range according to EIA weekly data.
  • Front month futures are today seeing some support, but prices remain within yesterday’s trading range. Technicals suggest the trend direction remains down with key Brent support at the Nov 16 low of 76.71$/bbl.
    • Brent FEB 24 up 0.3% at 78.27$/bbl
    • WTI JAN 24 up 0.3% at 73.27$/bbl



Source: Bloomberg

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