Near Term TTF Prices Hold Gains on Supply Risks

TTF front month is holding onto earlier gains with the prices above 35€/MWh after Chevron talks with workers unions end with an agreement and LNG strikes start. Despite the surge higher the front month is still below the levels seen late last week around 37€/MWh.

• Market volatility remains high with price swings driven by the uncertainty over the LNG industrial action in Australia and regular extensions to Norwegian seasonal maintenance. Front month 30 day historical volatility is up at 121% although below the high of 137% from late August.
• The spike in prices is focused on the front of the curve although future seasons are also up on the day with added supply risk heading towards the winter heating season.
• The Q1 2024 - Oct23 spread has pulled back to 16.9€/MWh having previously rallied to a new high earlier this week at 19.5€/MWh.
• The Win24-Win23 spread has remained more stable but is still trading off from the high of nearly 8€/MWH yesterday back to around 6.5€/MWh.
  • TTF OCT 23 up 9.4% at 35.85€/MWh
  • TTF WIN 23 up 3.9% at 48.27€/MWh
  • TTF SUM 24 up 2.1% at 51.2€/MWh
  • TTF WIN 24 up 1.5% at 54.74€/MWh