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Net Asset Purchases Flatline; Some See ECB Eyeing PEPP Changes

ECB

The latest weekly financial statement from the ECB shows net purchases of assets for monetary policy purposes came to positive E0.7bln in the week to Sep 8, slightly lower than the E1.3bln the week prior.

  • That was accounted for by PEPP net holdings rising E2.0bln (with E2.3bln in purchases offset by E0.2bln in redemptions). APP portfolios saw a net reduction of E1.3bln, up from E0.2bln prior - with the 4-week rolling sum at negative E13.7bln (was -E12.4bln prior).

As our ECB meeting preview out today outlines, analyst expectations are (unsurprisingly) for no changes to balance sheet policy this Thursday including on PEPP policy/guidance. Some however see potential for shifts, however subtle:

  • Danske expect the end of PEPP reinvestments (currently December 2024) to be on the cards soon with the ECB set to “task committees” ahead of an October announcement.
  • BNP notes there may be some early signs of a shift towards accelerating balance sheet unwinding, but a formal change is unlikely this week ("risks are skewed towards more hints that there is a debate underway").
ECB Net Asset Purchases W/EPSPP Cov BdCSPPABSPEPPTOTAL
7-Jul-23-0.50.0-0.60.02.41.3
14-Jul-23-1.1-0.4-1.70.03.70.4
21-Jul-23-13.90.0-0.4-0.3-4.1-18.8
28-Jul-23-4.6-0.5-0.5-0.11.3-4.4
4-Aug-23-11.9-0.20.0-0.1-2.8-15.0
11-Aug-230.00.00.00.02.42.3
18-Aug-23-10.40.0-0.6-0.1-4.8-16.0
25-Aug-23-0.40.0-0.4-0.20.5-0.5
1-Sep-23-0.10.0-0.1-0.11.51.3
8-Sep-23-0.3-0.5-0.40.02.00.7
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