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Neutral Trend in USDZAR Continues to Dominate

ZAR
While the rand was supported by the earlier fade in the greenback and lower US yields, USDZAR overall remains contained within this week's ranges. A more neutral technical trend condition continues to dominate, with key technical levels some way off on either side of current price: key resistance is marked at 19.1386, the Dec 11 high; key support at 18.1092, the Dec 15 low.
  • Focus shifts to the US inflation report tomorrow as EM FX continues to exhibit sensitivity to both swings in global risk sentiment and the Fed rate path, given the still-favourable carry profiles of many emerging market currencies. The local data slate is thin, with Manufacturing data the highlight tomorrow. The SARB meet next on Jan 25, where rates are expected unchanged at 8.25%.
  • Local equities remain highly responsive to both domestic load-shedding concerns (Eskom experienced another setback, with outages effecting as many as five generating units) as well as a lack of movement on China policy measures - many sell-side analysts expect movement on this as soon as Monday.
  • The JALSH allshare has declined 0.52% today, piercing below the 100-DMA at 73,511. A close at current levels or lower would mark a seventh session of losses in the past nine.
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