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New 30-year OT syndication preview

PORTUGAL AUCTION PREVIEW
  • Portugal yesterday released a mandate for a new 30-year OT, maturing April 2052. We expect the transaction to take place today.
  • This will become the longest Portuguese bond outstanding (other than the perpetuals which were launched in the earlier 1940s and which only have around E15mln outstanding).
  • The last launch of a 30-year issue was in January 2015 when the 4.10% Feb-45 was first sold via syndication for E2.0bln. The second current longest dated OT was also launched as a 30-year, the 3.10% Apr-37 launched in March 2006.
  • The 4.10% Feb-45 was only on offer once in 2020, with E247mln sold via auction in September. With E843mln of bids, the bid-to-cover was 3.41x.
  • Portugal held three syndications in 2020: a new 10-year in January for E4bln with books of E24bln, a new 7-year in April for E5bln with books of E30bln and a new 15-year in July for E4bln with books of 41bln.
  • Portugal's gross issuance target of OTs is E15bln for 2021, significantly down on the E27.2bln sold in 2020. This smaller issuance target may influence the size of the syndication.
  • We look for a transaction size of E1.5-3.0bln, with a risk of a size up to E4.0bln if demand is super strong.
  • Timing: The last syndication in July (of the new 15-year OT) saw the following timings (all timings UK/local to Portugal):
    • Books opened: 8:55
    • Guidance revised: 10:00
    • Guidance revised again: 11:00
    • Books closed: 11:30
    • Priced: 15:22
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