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NOK: Domestic Data Should Weigh On NB Rate Path, But Focus On September Releases

NOK

Today’s slightly softer-than-expected Q2 mainland GDP print was joined by a broad-based fall in inflation expectations in the Norges Bank’s Q3 survey. Although both datapoints would weigh on the Norges Bank’s rate path (presented at the next Monetary Policy meeting in September), actual inflation data and the forward-looking Q3 Regional Network Survey will likely be of more consequence to the rate outlook.

  • NOK still trades weaker against the G10 today though, with the totality of this morning’s domestic data weighing alongside a 1.3% fall in front-month TTF futures.
  • As such, bearish technical conditions continue to prevail in NOKSEK, which remains below 0.9711 (Mar 12 low), albeit only 0.2% lower on the day. Moving averages remain within a bear-mode set-up, with multi-year pivot support at 0.9500 the key downside level to track.
  • Meanwhile, natural gas benchmarks have continued to price out Sudzha-related supply concerns, with flows remaining intact.

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