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NOK/JPY Gains Put Cross in Range of Key Resistance Band

NOK
  • NOK strength persists as markets shrug off the softer-than-expected CPI data from this morning, which has done little to tilt expectations for the NB easing cycle to commence in H2 this year. NOK strength is meeting JPY weakness by pushing the cross to again test a key band of resistance.
  • The cross tested, but failed to meaningfully break, the 76.4% retracement for the 2022 - 2023 downleg on a handful of occasions last year at 14.0555. A clean and full break of the mark would be a bullish development, and a close above the Aug'23 high at 14.2122 would mark the best levels since late '22.
  • The Jan23 BoJ decision will be key for the cross, but the trajectory of near-term risk sentiment will likely play a larger part - the correlation between NOK/JPY and the e-mini S&P is well observed, for example. A strong earnings season (big banks begin the quarter from Friday) and a push higher for US stock indices could be the catalyst for a firm break of the key level.
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