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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
SCANDIS
NOKSEK has been unable to test the 1.00 handle over the past month, despite an increasingly favourable lean in rate differential dynamics after the Norges Bank/Riksbank June meetings.
- The cross trades cheap relative to cross-market correlations (fitted for rates, oil prices and Norges Bank FX purchases), highlighting the potential for a correction over the medium-term, as evidenced by the growing residual since 2023 (see chart below).
- An August Riksbank cut still appears likely after taking into account today’s June meeting minutes, while Norges Bank revised higher their path projections across 2024.
- Additionally, expectations for a tighter balance over the summer due to OPEC+ production cuts and stronger seasonal demand in Q3 has supported Brent crude through June.
- Next week’s inflation data in Norway (Wednesday) and Sweden (Friday) presents the next focal point for the cross, and could provide the next catalyst for any re-test of parity and the 61.8% retracement for the down leg off the May high at 0.9997.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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