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Nonfarm Payrolls: +188k Seen In MNI Dealer Median

US DATA

Recapping the main expectations for today's May Employment Report (0830ET/1330UK), from our Payrolls preview out yesterday (PDF here):

  • Nonfarm payrolls are expected to partially rebound in May from April’s surprisingly low 175k, with 188k in headline gains per MNI’s sell-side analyst median.
  • While still an acceleration from the prior month, the consensus outcome if realized would be seen as reinforcing the view that the labor market has shifted into a softer but still-solid phase of growth.
  • The rebound is seen being led by a recovery in government job gains. Private payrolls are seen posting a fairly flat rise of roughly 160k, vs 167k in April, with health and social assistance sector payrolls still providing the biggest boost.
  • Bloomberg consensus sees payrolls growth of 185k, with private payrolls up 165k.
  • Other key statistics are seen remaining relatively steady, including the unemployment rate (April: 3.9%, or 3.86% unrounded), with average hourly earnings ticking up to 0.3% M/M (April: 0.20% M/M unrounded).
  • MNI's Dealer Median table is below:

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